US Fed's June Interest Rate Meeting - Maintains Interest Rates Unchanged for the Fourth Consecutive Time, SHFE Tin Prices Hit Bottom and Rebound Slightly [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Morning Tin News on June 19, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) hit bottom and rebounded during the night session, closing at 264,150 yuan/mt, up 0.27% from the previous day.

Macro: (1) The US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time at its June policy meeting. The dot plot indicated two interest rate cuts this year, but the number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year rose to seven, and the expected number of rate cuts next year was reduced to one. Powell continued to emphasize uncertainties, stating that the current economic situation warrants a wait-and-see approach. He also anticipated tariff-driven inflation to rise in the coming months. (2) According to Yonhap News Agency, citing a plan reported by South Korea's Ministry of Science and ICT to the Presidential National Policy Planning Committee, the South Korean government will invest 16.1 trillion won in the AI sector over the next five years. It will ensure the secure supply of 50,000 GPUs and build AI data centers. The government will support the development of AI models and make them accessible to all citizens. (Bullish ★) (3) The "Several Policy Measures to Support the High-Quality Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry in Guangzhou Development Zone and Huangpu District" was issued, aiming to help build the core area of China's third pole for the integrated circuit industry. The measures include optimizing the industrial development layout, achieving breakthroughs in chip design, specialty processes, advanced packaging and testing, EDA tools, equipment, and parts, creating an entire industry chain covering design, manufacturing, materials, equipment and parts, packaging and testing, and establishing a comprehensive integrated circuit industry cluster. (Bullish ★)

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: The overall supply of tin ore in major producing areas such as Yunnan has tightened. As June progresses, some smelters are considering halting production for maintenance or slightly cutting production. (Bullish ★) (2) Demand side: Recently, as tin prices have returned to the 260,000 yuan threshold, most downstream enterprises have seen a decrease in orders and a weakening of purchase willingness.

Spot Market: Traditional sectors such as consumer electronics and automotive electronics have entered the off-season. Orders are mainly in "small batches and multiple frequencies." Downstream enterprises have low acceptance of high prices, and purchases are only made to meet immediate needs. Demand for tinplate and chemicals remains stable, but high prices have suppressed downstream purchase willingness. Trading in the spot market is sluggish, with daily trading volume of just over ten metric tons.